Virginia Election Forecast Predicts Democratic Wins In House And Senate, Which Could Lead To Legal Marijuana Sales
A new forecast of Virginia’s election predicts that Democrats are likely to win control of both chambers of the legislature on Tuesday—a result some advocates believe could open the door for lawmakers to legalize retail cannabis sales in the state. A separate poll, meanwhile, found 58 percent support among likely voters for allowing marijuana sales to proceed.
While marijuana legalization technically isn’t on Virginia’s ballot this week, advocates expect the results of the statewide election to shape the future of marijuana policy in the state. Specifically, some think that Democratic control of both chambers would mean the possibility of regulated cannabis sales to adults, while a broad GOP victory could allow Republicans to repeal the state’s limited legalization law.
Virginia legalized use, possession and limited personal cultivation of marijuana by adults in 2021, but commercial sales are still illegal and unregulated. The Republican majority in the House of Delegates has stood in the way of legislation to allow retail sales, most recently voting down a bill passed in February by the Democratic-controlled Senate from Sen. Adam Ebbin (D).
With every seat in Virginia’s legislature up for re-election, new projections from the firm CNalysis show Democrats with a slight edge in both chambers. The firm said Monday that there’s a 71 percent chance that Democrats maintain control of the state Senate and a 61 percent chance the party captures the House. Republicans, meanwhile, had 29 percent and 31 percent likelihoods, respectively, while CNalysis said there’s an 8 percent chance of a tie in the House.
“We’re not going to make progress on cannabis without a Democratic majority in the Virginia General Assembly,” Ebbin told Marijuana Moment in an interview last month. “Republicans in the House have repeatedly stymied our efforts to move forward on regulation and sales of a tested, legal product.”
FINAL VA FORECAST
In our final VA 2023 state legislative forecast at @CNalysis, each chamber is rated as "Lean Democratic."
State Senate
71% DEM Majority
29% GOP MajorityHouse of Delegates
61% DEM Majority
31% GOP Majority
8% TIEhttps://t.co/fx1VAm8fWB1/4 pic.twitter.com/ODLW0RvKFc
— Chaz Nuttycombe (@ChazNuttycombe) November 6, 2023
A new survey of likely voters in Virginia, meanwhile, shows strong support for legal sales. The poll of 800 people, conducted by Christopher Newport University between September 28 and October 11, found that 58 percent of respondents favor allowing commercial sales.
That number includes nearly 3 in 4 Democrats (76 percent) and 59 percent of independents. Only 38 percent of Republican voters said they supported the change.
Younger voters were also more likely to favor legal sales, the poll found, with voters 18–44 showing 69 percent support compared to 54 percent among voters 45 and older.
Even if Democrats do win control of both chambers, they would still face potential opposition from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who is slated to serve through the end of 2025.
Youngkin has been wary of allowing legal sales, and in June a member of his administration said the governor “has stated that he is not interested in any further moves towards legalization of adult recreational use marijuana.”
Ebbin said last month that Youngkin “has been a challenge to deal with because he hasn’t been forthcoming with his views on what he’s willing to support.”
Advocates are hopeful that broad support for marijuana legalization from Virginia voters would dissuade the governor from vetoing any legislative-passed reform bill or sending it back to lawmakers with recommendations for major amendments.
If Republicans were to capture both chambers, some legalization advocates worry the result could be a return to prohibition. With a GOP-controlled legislature and Youngkin in the governor’s chair, it’s possible Virginia could become the first state in the modern cannabis movement to undo legalization.
“That is a very valid concern,” Ebbin said last month. “We have a lot of big issues effectively on the ballot in November—they include the progress we’ve made on cannabis, a woman’s right to choose, LGBT rights and the environment—and Republicans have shown an appetite repeatedly to move backwards on these important issues.”
Not everyone is expecting tomorrow’s election to have such sweeping impacts on cannabis policy, however.
Chelsea Higgs Wise is the executive director for Marijuana Justice, a Black-led organization in Virginia that’s led the call to legalize marijuana with an emphasis on repairing harms caused by the drug war. While she agreed the coming election could have big implications for cannabis policy, she said it’s possible that with new districts, new members and new committee makeups, the legislature might shy away from sweeping change.
“We’re going to have brand-new people,” Wise said last month. “Just the culture of brand-new legislators, they don’t like to do too much, and marijuana is historically a very large lift. And I will say that there is not a known champion in the Virginia legislature that is ready to carry that.”
She expects that Youngkin’s looming presence will chill efforts at legalization, even if Democrats control both chambers. “If we don’t have a champion, we don’t have a broad push from the public and the governor doesn’t want it, these new legislators are not going to come in with marijuana on their mind,” Wise said.
On the other hand, she doubts Republicans would try to outlaw personal use and possession. “Even with a Republican majority, I do not think that they’re going to put their effort into undoing that because of their newness and because they didn’t run on that,” she said.
Wise does think Republicans would be eager to put more resources into training police and cracking down on illegal pop-up shops, however. “They are absolutely coming for legalization in a way,” she said, “but I don’t believe it’ll be the simple possession or homegrow.”
The advocacy group Virginia NORML conducted a candidate survey on cannabis and published a voter guide for the November 7 election with the aim of informing the electorate about where incumbents and challengers stand on cannabis policy reform.
Meanwhile in Virginia, several hemp businesses were recently hit with five-figure fines as part of an effort by the state to crack down on hemp cannabinoid products.
Two companies and a private citizen have also sued over the newly tightened rules for hemp products, which set the maximum amount of THC in hemp products at 0.3 percent concentration and 2 milligrams per package. The threshold made illegal hundreds of products already on store shelves. But late last month, a judge denied their claim.
Earlier this year, the GOP-controlled House also killed a proposal that would have let medical cannabis businesses made certain state-level tax deductions. That vote came days after Republicans scuttled the measure to start adult-use marijuana sales as well as legislation to create a psilocybin advisory board and reschedule the psychedelic.
The post Virginia Election Forecast Predicts Democratic Wins In House And Senate, Which Could Lead To Legal Marijuana Sales appeared first on Marijuana Moment.
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New York marijuana regulators are continuing an ongoing crackdown on unlicensed cannabis sellers, the state’s Office of Cannabis Management announced Monday, and it appears to be having some effect. Out of 47 shop inspections last month, the OCM said just eight were found to be selling without the proper permits.
During the inspections, however, regulators seized products worth roughly $6.2 million, including:
- 730 pounds of flower
- 622 pounds of edibles
- 45 pounds of concentrate
The OCM has been working in conjunction with agents from the New York Office of Taxation and Finance to conduct the enforcement efforts.
The 47 new inspections brings the total number of site inspections this year by New York officials to 289 different locations, the OCM said in its release, including 79 re-inspections. The crackdown seizures have totaled about 10,000 pounds of cannabis products worth almost $50 million, the OCM said.
“New York State has zero-tolerance for unlicensed cannabis shops that disregard local communities committed to creating a legal cannabis industry built on equity,” Chris Alexander, executive director of the OCM, said. “Collaboration and coordination are necessary to build a successful and equitable adult-use cannabis market.
“In that spirit, we will continue to work diligently, using our enhanced enforcement powers to seize unlicensed products and fine-tune a more efficient closure process,” Alexander continued. “This work requires an all-hands-on deck approach alongside local government officials and stakeholders to comprehensively address this public health crisis.”
The update released this week is the first of a recurring monthly enforcement bulletin to be announced the first Monday of each month, the OCM pledged. The agency reiterated that those found to be selling marijuana without proper licensure could be fined up to $20,000 per day.
It’s not clear yet how many such fines have been issued or paid, since many shops that receive cease-and-desist orders have simply ignored them. One of the most high-profile unlicensed shops, Empire Cannabis Club, is reportedly eager for the state to take them to court, confident in its legal position that its operations are within the parameters of state law.
Estimates of illicit dealers and shops range into the thousands statewide, while there are only 27 legal cannabis retailers operating to date and 44 cannabis growers showcases, which are effectively marijuana farmers markets.
A court order has stalled many of the 463 conditional adult use retail dispensaries (CAURD) from opening, and it’s unclear how quickly New York may see more legal shops open for business, though the state is currently accepting more marijuana business license applications until Dec. 18.
The post New York Enforcement Push Continues Against Unlicensed Cannabis Market appeared first on Green Market Report.
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Organigram Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OGI) (TSX: OGI) received a big financial boost from a subsidiary of British American Tobacco (NYSE: BTI), the company announced Monday.
The company secured a $124.6 million injection from BT DE Investments Inc. to fuel growth and product innovation.
The news comes as more cannabis-adjacent companies start to dip their feet back into early investments, potentially due to signals from the U.S. government of a more solid position on the plant’s future.
In a statement, Beena Goldenberg, CEO of Organigram, expressed enthusiasm about the “transformative” deal.
“This investment bolsters an already strong balance sheet and solidifies our position as a leading cannabis company,” Goldenberg said.
The investment is aimed at empowering Organigram to expand its international presence and escalate research and development initiatives. Organigram’s partnership with British American Tobacco, established in March 2021, has since yielded advancements in product development, especially in non-combustible cannabis products, the company said.
With the infusion of capital, Organigram plans to establish Jupiter, an investment pool targeted at emerging cannabis markets. That move is expected to capitalize on the growing trend of cannabis legalization globally and harness potential undervalued cannabis enterprises.
“The opportunity set within the cannabis space has grown significantly since our initial collaboration … as more adult consumers incorporate cannabis into their lives,” Paolo De Luca, Organigram’s chief strategy officer, said in a statement. “The competitive nature of the industry also means that the opportunity for investments is ample for companies with strong balance sheets, industry experience and a proven track record of M&A success.”
He added, “All investments will be considered with Organigram’s long-term strategic vision in mind and with the goal of delivering incremental value to both the company and our shareholders.”
According to the terms, British American Tobacco will purchase 38,679,525 shares of Organigram in three installments. The first tranche, with more than 12 million shares, is slated for January 2024. Should BAT’s stake exceed 30%, the additional shares will be non-voting, convertible preferred shares, ensuring BAT does not attain undue voting power.
The transaction will require a majority of the minority shareholder approval and is set to be discussed at Organigram’s annual and special shareholders’ meeting planned for early 2024.
The post Organigram Secures $124.6M Investment from British American Tobacco appeared first on Green Market Report.
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A longtime Colorado cannabis distributor and deal broker who works with dozens of farms and brands said he expects the cultivation sector in the state to continue shrinking more than it already has this year, but the wholesale market has already seen a bit of a rebound due to the contraction.
“A few years ago, we had 1.4 million plants in the ground. Last I looked, it was around 900,000,” said Aaron Shaw, a longtime Colorado marijuana industry insider who runs a grow called Higher Function. He also helps buyers find dispensaries on the secondary market.
Shaw predicted that scores more growers will go under in coming months before the market truly stabilizes.
“I think we’ll see another 50-100 cultivations go out of business because they’re undercapitalized,” Shaw said.
Per pound wholesale prices in Colorado at the end of October, Shaw said, were breaking down as follows:
- Outdoor flower, $350-$400.
- Greenhouse flower, $500-$650.
- Low-grade indoor, $700-$800.
- High-grade indoor, $800-$950.
- Top shelf indoor flower, $1,000-$1,800.
- Pre-packed top shelf indoor flower (as opposed to loose bulk flower), $1,600-$3,200.
Shaw added that there another industry problem in Colorado: more retailers not paying farmers and brands, as more become strapped for cash. It’s something he hopes the state will step up to help enforce payments that are due.
But so far, the state has stayed out of the issue, Shaw said, so those in the industry have already begun blackballing certain retailers.
“There’s a Facebook page called ‘Colorado: Who owes you money?’ There’s about 15-20 stores on that already,” Shaw said. “So there is already a blackball (list). What they do is, they order from one grower, they don’t pay them, and then they just order from another grower.”
He added, “It’s a dirty secret that no one’s talking about, and it’s killing people.”
That said, the market rebound is somewhat all over the map, with some retailers reporting that their sales are trending down over recent months, while others are up significantly, Shaw said.
Another noteworthy trend, he said, is that sales of dispensaries have picked up again in recent months, by about 25% from what he saw in 2022. And many of the dispensary purchasers are existing Colorado marijuana companies that have changed business strategies and decided to expand their footprint for various reasons.
“The growers wanted to get vertical and have stores, and this way they could have a buffer, and they could charge a little more for their wholesale product,” Shaw said. “It’s also two- or three-store operators who know they need to get to five or six stores to really be profitable and scale.”
The post Colorado Market Rebounding Somewhat, but Contraction Isn’t Over appeared first on Green Market Report.
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FINAL VA FORECAST